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Skeet the Skank Analysis

Posted on Aug 28, 2016

If you’ve been reading my blog for some time, you know how much I love data. I love numbers and graphs and all that stuff. I also like to rename contests, so this year I’m calling it Skeet the Skank. Beating it is getting old… (that’s what SHE said! Heh.)

These are two crude graphs that I drew up from last year’s data. There are a few gaps where I missed a few plays, but you can still see the clear patterns. Please keep in mind that these numbers are the amount that was available during each play, not the amount that was won.

This is the graph for the September – November play of 2015:

IMG_1423

Here you can see which days and times the biggest jackpots occurred. The 8:05 times had the majority of the jackpots over $2000, with a few in the 7:05 slot. Though this data is incomplete (I often missed the 4:05 play because I was at the park with the kids after school), the data shows that $1350 was the highest jackpot for the 4:05 play. With only ONE exception, the highest jackpot for the 11am play was $1800. Again, this data is incomplete, but it’s pretty safe to extrapolate and assume that the 11am jackpot didn’t go past $2000.

To get the average for each time slot, I removed the anomalies (the highest jackpots, which would skew the results). Using the data in the majority of the bell curve, the average jackpots were: 7am = $1272, 8am = $1994, 11am = $820, and 4pm = $803. The number of stats used were 33, 35, 32, and 16 respectively.

Below is the graph for the February – April 2016 plays. (It’s the first one I made so it’s not quite as tidy!)

IMG_1422

The same pattern is evident here, with the majority of the large jackpots in the 8:05 time slot and the smallest jackpots of the day usually during the 4:05 play. This graph, however, has much more variety than the Sept-Nov graph, with the occasional jackpot over $3000 happening during the 11:05 and 4:05 plays.

The average jackpots for each time slot here are: 7am = $1094, 8am = $1468, 11am = $984, and 4pm = $891. The number of stats used were 35, 30, 35, and 28 respectively. It’s hard to say if the 2015 average for 4pm would be higher or lower if I’d had more data, but suffice it to say that the 4pm play’s average is the lowest.

The similarities in the two graphs are obvious: the highest jackpots are in the 8:05 play and the lowest in the 4:05 play. In both graphs there are no jackpots between $2000 and $2500 – each play was either $2000 and below, or $2500 and above. Approximately 20% of the jackpots are above $2400, and 80% of them are below $2100.

There is one glaring difference in the two graphs: there were 18 jackpots that were more than $4200 in the spring of 2016, and only 5 jackpots over $4200 in the fall of 2015. Does that imply that the station has a bigger budget in the spring? Or does it mean that they’ve done studies that show no matter how high the jackpot has the potential to go, people will always tap out before the $2500 mark and the station will never have to pay out one large chunk? I wonder what the highest single payout has been over the years that they’ve been playing this game…

I’ve given you all the info I have, so now you can draw your own conclusions. Mine are: if I get to play at 8:05, I will hold out for as long as I can. If it goes past $2000, I will likely stop at $2500 because I’m a chicken shit and I really need $2500. If I get to play at 7:05, I’ll probably tap out at $800. While it’s likely to go higher, I’d kick myself if I kept going and lost out on $800! For the 11am and 4pm plays, I might only make it to $400 before I got the jitters. Then again, I’d be more willing to take a risk at going higher – at only $400, the $100 to Notch 8 Restaurant is almost as good!

Now you know why I like to keep track of the numbers. If you happen to be listening anyway, can you let me know the numbers if I miss some data? I can always use an extra pair of ears!!!